News headlines continually proclaim that something is a “risk factor” for a disease. Maybe you’ve read that eating dark chocolate decreases cancer risk or that having a sedentary lifestyle is a risk factor for heart disease. But what do those research results actually mean for you and your health?

This article will help you interpret health risk studies and understand how they can affect your health decisions. 

What are risk factors?

A risk factor is anything that increases the chance of developing a health condition. Risk factors may be personal (related to individual characteristics like genetics) or environmental (related to where you live, work, and spend your time). 

Some personal risk factors are out of your control, such as ethnicity, age, gender, and your family’s health history. Others are controllable, such as exercise, drug use, and hygiene. 

Environmental risk factors impact the health of both populations and individuals, and they are often beyond your control. Examples of environmental risk factors include pollution, inadequate access to health care, poverty, exposure to toxic substances, and lack of social support.

Your risk factors can change throughout your life and may be influenced by your lifestyle and habits.

“Understanding health risks is key to making your own health care decisions,” said William Elwood, now the chief of the behavioral and social sciences research branch at the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research, in a 2016 article. 

“It gives you perspective on potential harms and benefits, so you can make smart choices based on facts and not fears.” 

How to interpret health risk studies

First, check the source. When you encounter research or headlines about disease factors, check that the source is credible and trustworthy. An alternative health blog is not a reliable source, while reputable news sites like AP News or the New York Times are more credible. 

However, even good sources can get science reporting wrong. Typically, the direct quotes from researchers and articles from their research institutions provide the most accurate interpretation of these studies.

Ask who the research applies to. Not every risk study is relevant to all populations—even when news coverage suggests otherwise. Look closely at the demographics of the study population and the researchers’ goals. 

“Not everybody’s at the same risk,” said Dr. Greg Martin, a physician with specialist training in public health medicine, in a 2021 video on his YouTube channel. 

“Certain people have certain characteristics that might put them at more risk or might be exposed to something that puts them at more risk.”

Many studies look at risk in specific populations such as women over 50, adults with a family history of heart disease, or former smokers. If you don’t belong to these populations, the risks may not apply to you.

Remember that a risk factor is not a cause or guarantee of a disease. Having a risk factor or multiple risk factors for a disease does not mean that you will develop that disease. It means that you may be at higher risk of developing that disease within a specific time frame. Similarly, eliminating a risk factor for a disease does not guarantee that you won’t develop the disease.

Risk factors don’t always correspond directly to health impacts in individuals. For example, a study may find that coffee drinkers as a population don’t live as long as tea drinkers. But that doesn’t mean that individual tea drinkers will live longer or that giving up coffee is beneficial for everyone. 

Coffee drinking may be associated with other characteristics—such as a high-stress job, a long daily commute, or insufficient sleep—that negatively impact health. 

Consider the scale of the risk. Even when a risk is significant, the impact on health may be minimal. Understanding baseline risk, or the risk that something will happen before any change or intervention, allows you to better interpret the scale of the risk. 

A risk factor that doubles your risk of a certain cancer sounds scary. But if the baseline risk of developing the cancer is only one in a million, doubling the risk means you still only have a two in a million chance of getting that cancer. 

Don’t take headlines at face value. Headlines are designed to catch your attention, sometimes at the expense of accuracy. 

If specific risk factors interest you, read beyond the headlines. Seeking out the original study and previous research on the risk factor may provide a more comprehensive picture.

For example, if you read past a headline about smoking increasing lung cancer risk, you’ll find decades of credible research supporting that claim. But if you dig deeper into claims that drinking red wine decreases your risk of a heart attack, you’ll find that there isn’t clear evidence that the potential benefits outweigh the negative effects of alcohol consumption.

Talk to your health care provider. Your health care provider can answer your questions about risk factors and how they may impact your health.