What you need to know

  • COVID-19 directly and indirectly caused millions of excess deaths worldwide over the last four years. 
  • Research shows that higher COVID-19 vaccination rates are associated with lower death rates in the U.S. and globally.
  • Notably, no study has found a link between COVID-19 vaccines and an increase in deaths.

The COVID-19 pandemic drove deaths to historic heights. In the first three years of the pandemic, the U.S. recorded over 1.3 million excess deaths, which are deaths exceeding the number expected over a specific period of time. 

So, if approximately 1,000 people die every summer in a particular city, then 1,300 deaths in one summer would be 300 excess deaths—and researchers would want to understand what caused them.

A recent BMJ study used data from 47 countries to investigate the 3 million excess deaths in the Western world between 2020 and 2022. The paper concluded that excess deaths persisted throughout this period “despite the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines.” 

The study emphasized that deaths were highest in 2021 after the vaccines rollout. But it fails to note that deaths declined dramatically in 2022 as COVID-19 immunity from both COVID-19 vaccinations and infections surpassed 90 percent. Additionally, throughout the study period, COVID-19 death rates were consistently lower among vaccinated people. 

Despite this evidence, some anti-vaccine figures used the study’s conclusion to weave a false and illogical narrative that COVID-19 vaccines caused many of these deaths after 2020.

Here’s why we know that isn’t true, based on what data from the last four years tells us about COVID-19, vaccines, and excess death.

What are excess deaths?

Excess deaths are the number of deaths that exceed the expected number during a designated period. The calculation includes deaths from all causes and is based on factors like population and death trends in previous years. 

According to a WHO analysis, 15 million more people than expected died worldwide in the first two years of the pandemic. 

The BMJ study didn’t link vaccines and excess deaths

The recent paper only examined excess deaths in Western countries over three years. It didn’t look at causes of death or the vaccination status of those who died. Any conclusions about a link between COVID-19 vaccines and excess deaths are far outside the study’s scope. 

All we can conclude from the study is that deaths increased in the first year of the pandemic, continued increasing in the second year, and declined but remained high in the third year. The conclusion is hardly the bombshell finding that vaccine opponents have made it out to be. 

The BMJ study has faced harsh criticism, distancing stakeholders 

Since its publication, the BMJ study has faced considerable controversy. The journal issued a statement about how the study has been misrepresented and added a statement of concern indicating that the paper is being investigated due to concerns about its quality. 

Notably, some of the most severe criticism of the study comes from Ariel Karlinsky, creator of the World Mortality Dataset, which is the source of the study’s excess death data. Karlinsky called for the paper’s retraction on X and accused the authors of misusing data. 

The researchers’ institution and alleged funding source have also distanced themselves from the study.

Data shows that excess deaths correspond with COVID-19 deaths

Previous studies have shown that COVID-19 is the largest driver of rising deaths during the pandemic by a wide margin. Many of these excess deaths were COVID-19 deaths, some of which went uncounted at the time. 

Others are deaths indirectly related to the pandemic. For example, many patients put off routine health care early in the pandemic, leading to delayed diagnoses and treatment of life-threatening conditions like cancer and heart disease. The flood of COVID-19 patients that overwhelmed hospitals and pushed intensive care units to capacity resulted in people dying before receiving care. 

Additionally, the pandemic saw a rise in “deaths of despair,” including suicide and drug overdose, linked to intense social and economic stress such as chronic unemployment and poverty.

Of course, COVID-19 is not responsible for all excess deaths during the pandemic. However, every spike in excess deaths between 2020 and 2023 corresponds with a spike in COVID-19 deaths.

Line graph of the weekly COVID-19 death rates in the U.S. between 2020 and 2023Line graph of excess mortality from all causes in the U.S. between 2020 and 2023
Use the slider to see how spikes in excess deaths corresponded with spikes in COVID-19 deaths. Source: Our World in Data.

COVID-19 vaccination is linked to lower excess deaths worldwide

Throughout the pandemic, vaccinated individuals and more highly vaccinated populations have had lower COVID-19 death rates. A 2023 analysis of deaths from any cause and COVID-19 vaccination coverage across 178 countries found that higher vaccination rates are linked to lower mortality worldwide. 

Similarly, a study of excess mortality in 29 European countries found that countries that had vaccinated at least 70 percent of their population by January 2022 had lower excess mortality than countries with lower vaccination rates.

World map with countries in shades of yellow based on all-cause excess mortality rate, with darker shades indicating higher mortality.World map with countries in shades of green based on COVID-19 vaccine coverage, with darker shades indicating higher vaccination rates.
Use the slider to see how higher vaccination coverage correspond with lower excess mortality. All-cause excess mortality data is from 2020 to 2021 and vaccination rates are through March 2023. Source: Mendoza-Cano et al. (2023).

All available evidence shows links between COVID-19 vaccines and lower death rates. Researchers are still investigating all the factors that led to a rise in excess deaths during the pandemic.